Perryville Bad Beat
Hollywood Perryville in Maryland is running a massive promotion -- a $500,000 Bad Beat Jackpot.
From Jan. 15-Feb. 15, players can play for their share of a cool half million. I don't have all of the details, but I am working on getting them and will post about it when I learn more.
From Perryville management: Bad Beat is a table share; hand is quad 9s beaten by a 9-high straight flush in diamonds; payouts are 50% to losing hand, 25% to winning hand, 25% to all remaining players who were dealt in for the hand.
The caveat: it HAS to be those 2 specific hands.
However, it is completely free bad beat -- no money is taken from the pot.
Given that the odds of getting 1 exact 5 card hand in poker is almost 2.6 million to 1, the odds of that happening are "mighty slim" -- as in somewhere in the neighborhood of hitting the Powerball jackpot.
By far the most ridiculous standard for a bad beat jackpot i have ever heard.
@orcusvox When you consider that players are paying $0 for it, it's not that ridiculous. Is it a long shot? Of course. But when you don't have to pay any extra rake for it, who cares?
@Dap Poker Have people hit Powerball before? Then, to me, a free shot at $500K is perfectly fine. And, for the record, the odds of hitting Powerball are about 175 million to 1.
Just because it's free doesn't mean it'll draw people.
@orcusvox I never said it will draw people. I just said it's worth a free shot.
I never said that you said it would draw people. The point of any type of promotion is to attract business. I doubt that this convoluted bbj will draw people who wouldn't normally play there.
Odds Against Making Str8 Flush to the 9 in Diamonds (1 possible hand) - 2,598,960-1
Odds Against Making Quad 9's (44 Possible Hands)-59,067-1
Odds Against Both happening simultaneously- (rounding to the nearest 100,000)1,535,128,000
Cost to drive to Perryville from Baltimore (estimated) $15 in gas and $5 in tolls.
Number of hands necessary to achieve positive expected value- 6,140,510.
Assuming (generously) 40 hands per hour, one would have to play a mere 153,512.77 hours to make this promotion +EV. The promotion only lasts 744 hours so it is extremely negative EV.
@Krusherlaw Feel free to explain how playing a cash game in Perryville with this promotion and $0 BBJ drop is worse than playing a cash game in another room with a $1 min BBJ drop. ... Also, Perryville isn't charging a dime to give the $500K away, so why would you expect it to be +EV or slightly -EV to win that much? The only difference between a cash game at Perryville and a cash game elsewhere is driving distance and skill level of the players you face. It's the same game and same bankroll you choose to risk.
@Scooter , I guess the point of my post was to illustrate how miniscule the probability of winning this was. I assumed that during this promotional period they would still be funding the usual bad beat. If they are not taking the bad beat then it would slightly change the expected value math.
If you seriously want me to explain how it is negative value, here it goes:
For me, I do not play at Perryville because it is much further away than two other casinos. There is a cost for me to play at Perryville in the terms of gas and tolls (there is also a time cost in the form of travel time but I did not include that in my calculation). That cost is not nearly offset by the extremely remote possibility of winning the $500,000. Now, if you would otherwise be playing in Perryville it is +ev, so in that case good luck.
BTW I mistyped the odds of hitting this. It is actually 153,512,770,320-1 which far exceeds the total number of poker hands played through all of human history. In other words, it is very likely that this exact situation has never happened.
One is approximately 877 times more likely to hit the powerball.
Good point Krusherlaw but it's free therefore it's a great promotion.
@Krusherlaw For the record, I'm the Northeast Region (+IL/IN/MI/OH) information specialist for Poker Atlas. I received the email from Perryville and was asked if I could post the information on the website. I figured this was the best place to post it. ... Personally, I don't live that close to Maryland, so I don't have a personal interest in the promotion. But I do appreciate the explanation and the odds you provided. It was an interesting read.
@orcusvox If you're comment was based on sarcasm, maybe you need to relax and take the promotion for what it's worth - primarily a gimmick with a Powerball-type probability of winning. I was doing my job here at Poker Atlas by posting the info I was sent to share with our members. I never said in any post or reply that this promotion was great, I simply posted the details, including the fact that is would cost players nothing.
This is the last i will say on this subject.
You defended the bbj in a few posts. I have no issue with you posting the information. That is the point of this site.
I will stand by my assertion that this is a worthless promotion. Personally I wouldn't play at any room that believes that this is a good opportunity for players. If you think about it, it's actually kind of insulting to the players.
Bottom line is rooms should do what's in the best interest for the business and players. This was a waste of time and money.
@orcusvox Opinion noted ... but let's be clear about one thing: I never defended this promotion - I posted facts, and offered one opinion about the no-cost aspect, nothing more. ... I rarely play cash games. When I do, it's not because of promotions.
Perryville patrons have already complained to management about it, before it has even started. My suggestion? Tell Perryville it's and a waste of time and money - not me. I've never even been to Maryland, let alone Perryville. They emailed info and asked if I could post it on our website, so I did.