Huge River OVERBET
Traveled to Cherokee, NC for the recent WSOP Circuit event and busted Event #3 after about 4 hours of play. Immediately went to the CASH tables and bought into a $2/5 NL game. Most players had between $500 - $1000 except for one who had about $2000 and another with about $200.
The BIG STACK was a young kid that didn't say much, but wasn't unfriendly...just doing his work as it look like he traveled to do this for a living.
I wasn't involved in this hand but the guy to my right was and I chatted with him after the hand was completed. I probably had only been at the table for 30 minutes or so as guy to my right opens for $20 and he gets several callers including the big stack on the button.
Flop comes 6 ♠ J ♠ 7 ♦
Original raiser on my right bets $50 and the button (big stack) calls. Original raiser starts hand with about $800.
Turn is Q ♠
Original raiser checks and Big Stack bets $45 (Weird) Original raiser calls the $45
River K ♠
Original raiser checks and Big stack grabs all of his black chips and just flings them out in front of him. ($600 bet) Pot has about $275 before river and he bets $600???
The Original Raiser folded after about 2 minutes of thought. I asked if he folded a SET and he said "Yes, set of 6's". I told him I thought he made a good fold but he felt like he was bluffed.
We never found out what he had...but any guesses from anyone? I have a thought but will post later.
Unless the kid is super loose almost crazy bluffy, he has nut flush trying to get paid by smaller flushes.
I often see (and make) this kind of play when I have the true nuts on a hand, and it's likely someone else has a hand that they 'think' is the nuts. In this case, something like a 9Tss would be a great hand to overbet because anyone with the A is going to call). He could also have the As, but that would be a foolish thing to do if he actually hoped for a call.
I think you hit the nail on the head Mr. Friedberg. The Big Stack didn't show his hand his opponent thought he would show such a big hand to the table. I told him, "kid ain't showing you anything...he does this for a living."
Is there high hand bonus in this room?
Pretty sure there wasn't.
I hate assigning duh narrow ranges to people but I agree with Jon, this is almost always T9ss. I can see making this play with the As if I'm vs an opponent who loves to hero call and I know won't fold the Ts (2nd nut flush).
Is kid the type to auto bet if checked to?
If he had straight flush he really missed value... there just aren't that many hands that can call $600 on the river, and even As nut flush would probably hesitate and reevaluate and possibly fold. And preflop raiser checked turn + river so most likely do not have nut-flush there.
If kid really think preflop raiser has nut flush then a 1/3-1/2 pot bet to induce a check-raise would be better.
@thamster It is difficult to really know the best play in the long run. Having the absolute nuts versus a very strong hand doesn't come around very often. If the kid did have the straight flush...he must have thought the opponent would call often enough to make this the most profitable play.
He bets $600 and gets a call 30% of the tim...he nets about $30 more per hand than betting $150 and getting a call 100%.
Not sure he gets a call of $150 100% of the time...
@bentonblakeman @JonFriedberg
Feels to me like he had a huge hand and was trying to make it look like a bluff.