The biggest loss in my life
I last spoke of moving up and taking my shot at 8/16. So, I got to the Wynn last Sunday at about 7 o'clock. I had to wait nearly 90 minutes, since they only had one 8/16 game. At one point, they had 7 names on the list, so I think they could have opened another game.
During my wait, I watched the game to figure out as much as I could. I thought the players were not as weak as I have been used to at 4/8, but I still thought there was money to be made. There were two players playing any ace, players calling with terrible odds, and players calling hands down with second pair or worse.
So I finally get in the game, and buy in for $240. About 5 hands into the game, I get 66 in MP. Long story short, I flop a set, and lose to a guy who flopped middle pair and went runner-runner straight. Lost 5 big bets on that hand.
A couple hands later, I switch to the 3 seat from the 6 seat. I like seats 1-3 the most because you can see other players easier. This also put me to the right of the guy who sucked out on me. It was a good seat because he had been fairly active pre-flop.
I was SB, and it shocked me to see the table fold around to the button. That was the first time I saw that in all of my observation of the game. The button didn't surprise me and raised. I look down to see A-10s, so I three bet to knock the BB out. She folds, button 4 bets, I call. Flop comes A82, I bet, he raises, I call. I go into check-call mode, and he shows me AK. I was on the button with $32 left. I decide to play to the BB, and just leave the game.
So, I decide to try 1/2NL at the venetian. Buy-in for $150, and about an hour into it, I flop top pair, go all in, get called by a flush draw that comes home. Then I had to reload.
There was a maniac who was two seats to my left that was raising with napkins. So my plan was to pick up a medium pair or better, or AJ or better, and limp in. Then, I would re-raise all-in. I picked up AJs UTG, and limp in. Just like I planned, maniac raised to $15. There were callers, which was frequent when this guy raised. If somebody had a hand, they would re-raise. I thought my hand was good, so I push all in for $115, just trying to pick up the $60 in dead money. Then, the maniac goes all in, and tables AA. Flop was J high, so if I called pre-flop, I still probably would have gotten all-in. So I pulled out my last $85 and donked that off by going all in PF with 66, and maniac had 1010.
I went home then, composed myself, and since I wasn't tired, decided to play some 4/8. I know people aren't huge fans of the bellagio (myself included) I decided to go there. I saw a post here that said the reason the poster didn't like bellagio is because there were so many people who wouldn't fold. That sounded like my kind of game.
So I sit down way back in the corner of the room. I actually liked it back there because I could put my drink on the ledge along the wall. The table was amazing. There were two locals who would call all the way to the river if they had at least 2 outs. Sure, they would catch sometimes, but I was able to suck $160 off the game in 4 hours.
As the week continued, I went to MGM after work on Monday. Had a very fun table, with everyone joking around. I had a lot of respect on the table, and tried getting loose-aggressive pre-flop. I've been trying this lately, and it has been a lot of fun. The swings are tough, but it's fun to have a table reacting to how you play and always on their heels. Had players on the game that, if they had an Ace, they would go to the river. Had one younger, solid player on my left that I could get out of the pot easily, but if they came along to the flop and fired, I would be gone. I did very well adjusting to each player on the table and playing to their weaknesses. I finished up $85 for 3 hours of play.
Last night, I was at the orleans with some co-workers and decided to play there. There were crusty old locals there that were no good. I entered maniac mode pre-flop, and pissed off most of the table. 4 players decided to leave because of my aggression. That was fun.
I again improved on playing on each individual's mistakes. I feel like I got the maximum value out of all of my winning hands. I played for 4 hours there, and finished up $135.
I have had a super sick run of sessions at 4/8. Since I started my poker plan, I have won $892 over 19 hours since 2/28. The only losing session I've had at 4/8 was at the bellagio for $8 over 30 minutes of play. Fortunately, this crazy run has made losing $593 on sunday night a little easier to swallow.
man, that sucks. But hey, if you're beating a game and you're happy with the profits, ride that horse as long as possible. I do recall that when there's only one table of 8/16 at the Wynn, it's the slowest moving list in the room (compared to 4/8, 15/30, anything else!).
Just remember that when you move up, pay closer attention to where you're losing bets, and plug up the holes in your game accordingly...
At least you only lost a few hundred tilting
, it could always have been worse! I wonder if you can make over 2BB/hr at 4/8 for a span of hundreds of hours. I've always assumed one couldn't, but if you can, it's better than eeking out 1~1.5BB/hr at 8/16, and a lot less stressful apparently!
With this last run, I'm making just under $15/hr at 4/8 over 185 hours. While I know that is too small of a sample to declare that a true win rate, it is very promising. Nonetheless, I still want to move up at some time.
While that 8/16 game wasn't as soft as 4/8 games that I've been playing lately, I didn't feel like I was the weakest player at the table. I felt like the table was very beatable, I just got nailed in the first round.
It is difficult for me to find leaks in my game. I think that is true for everybody, they can see other people's leaks, but not their own. I know I have leaks, everyone does. I used to piss money away on the turn and river, but I've improved that. I would always lay down draws with improper odds, but if had a top pair type of hand, if I got a lot of heat on 4th street, I would stay with it. I've realized that if you are getting a lot of heat on the turn, your opponent isn't messing around. Plus, if you call that turn bet, the odds are you will have to call a river bet. So, your pot odds on the turn are cut in half because you will be calling 2 bets, not just that one on the turn. After I made that adjustment, I started having better results.
Now, the mistakes that I'm seeing is on the flop. I'm making weak calls with middle or bottom pair with 6-1 odds. That just isn't enough. I figure I need about 10-1 odds instead. Plus, very rarely, I'm making gutshot calls with good odds, but with a two flush on the board. This is a very small leak that rarely comes up, but I need to be throwing those hands away too.
It sucks to lose out to suckouts, and it sure seems as if you played the limit table well in the hands you describe. But to be honest, $240 is not enough of a buy-in at that level. A buy-in for a limit game that allows for the invariable variation is 50x the BB, or in this case, $400.
I know what you mean about sick runs though. I was stagnating in my Bay Area $6/$12 game and re-read SSHE (for the 4th or 5th time), made some adjustments, and have had 7 consecutive winning sessions, most of them huge, over about 32 hours of play that have netted me a total of more than $1600.
What I usually do when I play is buy in for 15 big bets, and then reload another 15 if I go bust. If I lose 30 big bets in one session, I just call it a night. 50 is a good number, too. I just use 30. I've only lost 30 BB's twice in all of my playing time, so I figure 30 is good enough for me.
When I took that shot at 8/16, I did it with the short buy-in so that if I took a hit, I wouldn't give up all of my progress at 4/8. I'd love to buy in for $400 at the 8/16 game, but I just don't have the ammo yet.
I can understand that. However, I've seen a lot of conventional wisdom that suggests moves to the next level should be avoided until you have a bankroll that can take the (unavoidable) swings.
I've used the guideline of 4x the expected buy-in for a game before I move up, although I've seen literature that suggests quite a bit more. I began playing in a $1/$2 limit game, where despite the rake, I actually made money, although it took me awhile. I then moved up to $2/$4, then $3/$6, then $6/$12, and when I took my bankroll to more than $3000, I tried jumping to a $15/$30 game. Unfortunately, I took some bad swings (and also probably made too many donkey plays), so I dropped back down to $6/$12, where I'm back to accumulating again (I've made a prifit at 8 of my last 9 sessions, and most of those were triple-digit profits).
I will sometimes try to attack short stacks even in limit games. Typically, short stacks will play less than premium hands *because* they are short stacks. Plus, a smaller buy-in also means that if I get down early and then get a premium hand (like what happened to me yesterday), I run the risk of not maximizing my profits.
Yesterday, I had a bully 2 seats to my left, and we got into an argument because he slowrolled his hand. I was down a bit--not a lot--and because he was chastised by the floorman, he tried to play whenever I was in the pot--he even said so. So I slowplayed pocket aces preflop in early position knowing almost certainly he was going to raise (I would never otherwise slowplay aces in early position). Sure enough, he popped it. I was a bit dismayed to see 3 cold callers, in addition to the blinds calling, but I knew I still had equity, so I was able to 3-bet. And get all callers. Unbelievably, after a flop of A-7-7 rainbow, I still got multiple callers on the flop and turn, and one stuck with me to the end. It was a *huge* pot, something more than $200, I think.
My plan to take shots is basically this: If I have a session at a lower limit game (4/8) and have a win of one buy in (15 Big Bets) at that limit, and one buy in at a higher limit game (8/16) I'll take one shot and move up. So, if one buy in at 4/8 is $120 and one buy in at 8/16 is $240, if I win $360 in one session, I'll take a shot. That way if I go bust at 8/16, I've still increased my bankroll by one buy-in at my main game, 4/8. If I win at 8/16, I'll keep playing there (with only one buy in of 15 big bets) until I have a losing session.
Since a win of $360 is very rare at 4/8, I've made a strategy if I have consecutive winning sessions. So for X number of consecutive sessions, if I make X number of buy-ins at 4/8 plus one buy in at 8/16, I'll take a shot. I'd need to make $480 over 2 sessions, $600 over 3, $720 over 4, etc.
I want to move up eventually, but I know I don't have the 'roll to move up permanently. However, I do want to take shots without blowing my bankroll. I think this plan would allow for me to take shots and increase my bankroll at the same time.
What do you think?
Well, everyone has different strategies, and they vary in quality. I think you have a plan, which is more than 90% of the people on the felt. Just because it's different from my plan makes it nether better nor worse.
For me, I'd prefer to get to a point where I feel consistently comfortable at a level, not only in terms of the money involved, but also in terms of the level of play and the level of skill required. The basics work fine at lower limits, but up past, I'd guess, $10/$20 or $12/$24 games, the skill level starts to go up. (That said, I've played in $15/$30 games that act like $3/$6 games.)
I think I lost a good chunk of my bankroll trying to go up to $15/$30 not only because of a bad run or because of bad plays, but because I played against better opponents. I'm thinking, too, that to sustain a game at a higher level where they play is also better, I want a bigger bankroll to take that shot so I have enough cushion to have a good idea to know if my winning or losing isn't random chance, but actually a good representation of my capability at that level.