I was playing in a multi-table tournament and got to the final table with seven players left. The top four places were getting paid, and I was 3rd largest stack at the table with 70K in the small blind. Blinds were 1,500-3,000, antes of 400. We were in the last hand before a break, and I picked up AsQh.
The cutoff is the only caller, and the button folds. The villain is an older man who has me covered. He's been fairly active, though I haven't seen him show a hand down yet.
I raise to 10K, the big blind folds and the villain calls. The flop comes Ks9sQd. I'm thinking even though the K is a concern, I'm probably good here. He hasn't seen me play a hand, we are down to seven players, and I have some big draws. So I bet 20K. The villain goes into the tank for what seems like a long time, but was probably just 45-60 seconds, then shoves all in.
Here is my thinking for a call:
1) he wouldn't have shoved with a K that he'd call a pre-flop raise with in that spot
2) we're short handed, which further reduces the possibility of a K
3) if he does have K, I have a lot of outs: any A, Q or running spades, plus straight draws
4) Blinds are going up after this hand
My thinking for a fold:
1) I still have about 40K to work with if I fold
2) there are smaller stacks that should be more desperate than me after the break
3) he would shove with a smallish K he's trying to protect, so I'm probably behind
So do I call or fold? And were my earlier bets mistakes? I'll post the results after I get a few comments. Thanks!