Did I miss a bet?
I was playing a 1/3 NLHE game at one of my regular card rooms. We were sitting 6 handed. I was dealt A ♦ Q ♦ one off from the button. I raised to $15 with $325 behind. V1 was on the button and flat called the $15 (he is very loose, calls with any two cards here really) with $200 behind. V2 raises to $45 from the small blind with $550 behind. I flat call and V1 flat calls. The flop comes K ♦ J ♣ 2 ♦ . V2 c bets $45. I flat call here in hopes of inducing a shove from V1. V1 folds. Turn card is 9 ♥ . V2 checks into me. I check the turn after some thought. My question is, should I have bet here?
I had V2 on med to large pocket pair here. He is not super tight, but tight enough to raise from the small blind with only a starting pair. Probably 9's or better. My thought was that he would check a made set here. I would not put him on fold with a made set, and therefore, thought to minimize pot size and see if I make my hand on the river. The river comes 8 ♥ . To my surprise, V2 shoves. I insta fold, as I realize that Ace high is in no way good here. At least, not for all of my chips.
Do I bet the turn? Do I re-raise the flop? My thought on re-raising the flop was that if I did, I would give V1 (the loose money I wanted in) a bigger reason to fold. Still, this backfired on me, as V1 folded anyways.
Any help would be appreciated.
-Andy
You are putting V2 who 3 bet preflop on 9-9 to A-A. Well, after the flop that means for that range:
AA - you are about a 55/45 underdog
KK or JJ - you are about a 2 to 1 underdog
QQ or 10-10 - you are about a 55/45 favorite
9-9 - you are about a 2 to 1 favorite
So, against that range, you are a slight underdog. Without any other information, I'd say that given that you'd like to trap V2 for more money, I don't mind a call in that spot. However, if you throw 8-8 into that range, where you are also a 2-1 favorite, then you become the favorite against his range and raising becomes a better choice -- again without any other information.
But, I think in order to answer this correctly, we need to know some more about both of the villains in this hand. Therefore, I'd be interested to know 2 things and I'll give you my take on how the answers affect my decision.
1) You say that V1 is loose and will play nearly any 2 cards. Okay, that is preflop. How does he play post flop?
If he tends to fold when he misses or has a fairly weak hand and faces action, then your plan to trap him is not going to work all that often and you should be more willing to raise the flop. If he tends to be really bluffy or calls a lot of bets post flop with weak hands, then I like calling better.
2) What you think about V2's bet sizing on the flop?
He 3 bet to $45 preflop, got 2 callers and then bet $45 again into a $135 pot. That seems odd to me. Not only is it a little small in relation to the pot, it is exactly the same size as his preflop 3 bet and that probably means something. If it means that he is more likely on the weaker part of his range (e.g., QQ to 99 or even 88), then I like raising a lot more because it is going to win you a $180 pot right there a lot of the time and the times it doesn't, you still have a lot of equity. If the $45 bet means that he is more likely to have flopped a set and he is betting small to "trap", then I like then I like calling more -- particularly if he is likely to stack off with a set.
Honestly, I think question 2 is the more important one, since V2 is likely ahead of you right now and also has a big enough stack to double you up.
Whereas V1 has $155 behind which after V2's flop bet is less than the size of the pot and, since he can be playing any 2 cards, is likely to have missed the flop entirely and be folding a significant percentage of the time.
Furthermore, the answer to question 2 will tell you whether or not to bet the turn once you make the call on the flop and V1 folds. If V2 is more likely to be betting the weak part of his range, then you should bet the turn; if the $45 means he more likely has a set, then you should take the free card.
Dave
P.S. I added 8-8 into V2s range specifically because I think his betting means that is exactly what he had. He had 8-8 and was trying to get it to heads up with V1 preflop. On the flop, he knew he needed to C bet, but made it small because he was afraid that the flop hit your range. Once, you called, he shut down and then overbet the river hoping that you'd stack off with a hand like A-K.
@Dap Poker Thank you for the thorough response. That was exactly the type of input I was looking for. To answer question 1, V1 is very loose pre-flop, and fit or fold post flop. Being very loose, King anything is definitely within his range. I would see him re-raising the flop bet with King under. The caveat to this is that he would (and has several times in this session alone) shove with the straight draw or flush draw.
As for question 2, my thought at the time of the hand was that he was making a value bet here. That led me to the call rather than to raise as I thought he would be value betting a set out of position. I agree about 8's being in this range as well. And it is the play I did not see. Knowing that the flop was all over my range I would see him making that bet to find out the info that he needed and also to get V1 to go away or show himself. At the time I was only able to see the value in making the call, and the outs that I had against a made hand. It was the made hand part that led me to the call only. But V1 definitely played into this decision, as I felt that making the call of $45 on the flop, would make calling V1's all in or at least raise an easier decision.
Also, and because I am not asking questions because I know the answer, rather, I am looking to learn and get better, given the thought process I had, is there ever any reason to fold this flop under these circumstances?
I would raise the flop, and trying to get it all in there (on the flop). BUT, since you just called (which isn't bad at all), then I would still have bet the turn when it was checked to me....and I would bet again on the river whether I hit or missed. This disguises your hand as having a King. Unless V2 has a king or better, he might call the turn, but he is almost always fold on the river to an appropriately sized bet.
If he is slow-playing KK or JJ here, then kudos to him for outplaying you. Or if he has something like QQ, he is folding on the river if he has a brain in his head.
@sam shakes
Given that additional information, namely you felt V2 could be value betting a flopped set and that V1 could shove with a K or a weaker draw than you have, then I think that the call is the right play in this particular spot. Jon makes a good point that raising is also a good decision here, but because of your specific reads at that time, I think that flatting is a completely reasonable choice.
What you need to clarify in your mind are the reasons that you are making that call and be sure that they are detailed. In other words, thinking "I have a flush draw, so I call" is bad. Thinking something like "I have a flush draw and I think that V2 is betting with a lot of made hands in this spot, so it might be better to just flat him and see if I can get V1 to come along." is a lot better. And thinking something like the following is even better still.
"Boy, I think V2 could be value betting a set here. But, he could be betting smaller because he scared of that king, and if that is the case, then I might be able to steal it on the turn or river even if I miss. My problem is that V1 is in the hand and he's been shoving with some weak draws and might even shove with a King. But, if V1 shoves and V2 folds, then it would be about $100 back to me and the pot would be about $470, so I'd be getting a good price to call him with my draws. If V2 calls the shove, then he probably has a set, but it would still be $100 back to me with $570 in the pot at that point and I'd be getting a good price to call even though it would mean I only have about $125 behind and I might have to stack that off if I miss the turn and the board doesn't pair the turn. Even if V1 shoves and V2 reshoves, then that would likely mean that V2 has a set and I'm a 2 to 1 underdog to his hand. But, then the pot would be about $700 and it would cost me $230 to call, which is still a good price for my draws against a set. So, given all of that, I think there is a lot of value to be had by just calling here, instead of raising."
To answer your followup question, NO IT IS NEVER RIGHT to fold that flop (yes, I meant internet screaming here). If V2 bet out $45 and turned over KK before you called, then you are still getting the right price to call him. Even if there were only one card left to come it would be correct to call -- you'd have to call $45 to win $180 and you are going to hit one of your 12 outs slightly more often than 1 time in 4 on the next card.
Dave
P.S. I wish I was able to think like "even better still" thought process I laid out while I was sitting at the table. I don't, but it is the level of thinking that we need to be striving for in order to make good plays.
@Dap Poker Well said Dap! Agree completely that it's important to be able to think constructively and creatively while in the midst of a hand like this. It's sometimes difficult to think clearly in the heat of the moment during a big hand...something that took me a while to get good at. Benton is VERY good at this, as are the best players in the game.
My gut tells me that I'd likely call the flop (although raising and getting it all in just to protect your equity is fine.) But I definitely see merit to calling and allowing the button to act with minimal info on your hand. I think when villain checks the turn they kind of cap their range at AK at best, but more likely QQ type hands. I'd plan on betting turn when checked to and shoving river when checked to. This balances your range between bluffs that miss and big hands as that's how you'd also play 2 pair/sets.
As played there's no way you can call the river. So curse the poker gods for not letting you get there and fold. And say nice hand when he shows you a bluff or the same hand as yours :-)