Normal variance or do I have a leak?
NLHE tournament in local card room. 1500 / 3000 / 500 ante, 16 players remaining and paying 7 spots. V1 is sitting UTG+1 and is clear chip leader at table with over 90K chips. I'm in the cutoff with roughly 43K chips. V1 has been TAG and generally had reasonable hands at showdown (AT-AK, pocket pairs, etc.). I've also been playing tight and the worst hand I've had at showdown was top two pairs. V1 and I have been at the same table since the beginning of the tournament.
UTG and V1 both limp and action folds around to me. I'm dealt QQ and raise to 8500. It folds to UTG who also folds. V1 shoves all-in and I call. V1 shows 88 and he hits an 8 on the river to knock me out.
I know this is just normal variance and I have to deal with it. However, this is the third consecutive tournament (including two final tables) where I got knocked out in almost identical fashion. So, the question is should I be making adjustments in my game (e.g., raising bigger, shoving pre, etc.)? If so, what adjustments? Or am I just running bad?
I think the problem with this particular hand is that you didn't raise enough. With two 3k limpers, and 1500/3k blinds, TYPICALLY you should be raising to about 11k+. But since you only have 43k, and this is a tournament, I might suggest just shoving here. You don't have enough chips to play the hand post flop, so by just raising to 8k, you're 'pricing them in' to call, and then you end up in a scary situation on a lot of flops. So for this hand, I would suggest just shoving since you're only about 14bbs, or if not, then raise to 11-12k and hope no A or K comes.
I'm happy with your raise amount here. And anyone should be happy getting them in as an 80% favourite. You can't allow a shove to push away 66,77,88,99, or A10,AJ or even AQ.These are the hands that invariably pay off your 2.66BB raise. Nearing the final table,a 14/15BB stack should be seeking to increase to an amount that won't be bullied by the chip leaders. Variance affects us all,but never let it's shadow deflect you from exploiting weaker hands. Good luck at the tables.
I agree with JonFriedberg. You don't have enough chips to really maneuver after the flop.
I also agree with Friedberg here. It kind of sucks when you shove QQ for 14bb and they all fold, but realistically you will pick up 3500 in antes, 1500 sb, 3000 bb, and 6000 in dead chips from the limpers when they fold. That's 14k chip increase which is 33% of your stack without seeing a flop! That's huge in tourney poker. And the key is you pick it up without risking your tourney life when they fold. As long as you balance that shove long term by doing the same with AJ+ and 88+ you'll do fine. As Jon stated, while your raise did entice a worse hand to shove, more often they will call and when the flop comes bad for you it leave a you in a terrible spot with 20% of your chips already invested in the pot.
@BentonBlakeman I'd shove here but I don't think your decision was all that bad. You got the desired result having the other player shove pre flop, there is no reason to be results oriented on that. You should be looking to win these tournaments not just limp into the money and getting all in here as an 80/20 favorite is about the best you can hope for.
In a "real" tourney I push here but I'm guessing this is a fairly low buy in not so great structure tourney. If the players are bad enough you can make these 2.8x (or even less) raises preflop and pick up a lot of pots. If you actively take advantage of that, you can't change your strategy to shove on the times where you have a real hand.
I am consistently surprised in these low buy in tourneys in Vegas how some players will allow you to run over them with 2 to 2.5 x raises when the blinds get huge. Your local room may have more astute players than that in which case I am shoving there.
@zourah Its common place in these sub $100 tournaments in Vegas,for" weekend" players to tighten up as the bubble,or final table approaches.Their main priority is making it into the money.You must take advantage of this passive strategy,and exploit every opening that becomes available.After the bubble bursts,the "tourist" tends to loosen up immensely,and by changing your modus operandi,you can reap while the sun shines. . . . .PS............Once you have folded AA,You can lay down anything,regardless of how tempting it looks.Discipline equals bankroll growth!!!