Tough spot with Big Slick
1/2 cash game at Hollywood Casino STL. Play has been loose...a lot of action. Hero has $260, Villain has me well covered.
Two limps, Hero raises to $15 with
3 Callers. Approximately $60 preflop
Flop is 10 ♦ 3 ♣ 2 ♦
All 3 players check to me, I bet $40 with my two overs and nut flush draw, villain calls.
Turn 10 ♥
Villain leads for $50. Hero calls.
River A ♣ , giving me top-top.
Villain leads for $100. Hero only has about $155 behind. What should Hero do?
Tough spot. The lead on the turn is troubling because the single most straight forward interpretation of a turn bet is that the Villian is holding a ten in his hand for trips. If Villian is particularly bluffy - and likes to float (out of position) with all sorts of hands - his range opens up more. So, knowing more about the Villian here might help. If I think the Villian might bet the turn with two diamonds (less likely given our holding), a medium sized pocket pair, and semi bluff hand like 4-5.... well, again, that opens up his range. But would he fire a second bullet with some or all of those hands? Unless I think my opponent is aggressive enough to do that, I think I might fold. If you held A-K of Clubs, you might reasonably believe one option is that your opponent held A-X of diamonds and backed into top pair. But that can't happen here. Against a tight or passive opponent, I think you are going to see trips and full houses here a clear majority of the time and I fold.
If I judge my opponent to be weak and aggressive - one prone to not want to fold on the river and one that would rather use blocking bets - I might start adding a hand like J-J to the Villians range. And if this opponent likes bluffing and betting scare cards, even more hands enter his range. In these cases, I'd lean towards a call given the better than 3-to-1 pot odds you are getting.
Villain is a LAG. Playing a lot of pots. Won a big pot by bluffing out an opponent when a flush card hit, and has won a big pot when having the goods. He had about $500 in his stack. He's definitely capable of floating, but I wouldn't say he's gets too far out of line. Good player.
Agree it's a fold against a tight player. Against a LAG, it's a much tougher decision.
Okay, that helps. Given the pot odds, I think I call. It is certainly suspicious that you opponent bet less than half pot here (an amount that he should expect will be called by any overpair to the flop.... cards that are all within your range). But I think your opponent here will occasionally show up with bluffs, hand like JJ that seems too strong to fold or check on this river (so they fire a blocking bet), and hands like A-K and A-Q that were floated/bluffed and got there on the river. I certainly expect to lose here more often than I win, but calling $100 to win $340 here seems like a worthwhile call (barely). Would not fault a fold and might go with a different strategy if I felt like I had a better read live. I can certainly recall making a few laydowns in somewhat similar situations and realizing I folded the winning hand to a blocking bet.
If this were a tight opponent, I agree it's a clear fold. Actually, the call on the turn is a little suspect. You are not quite getting the right immediate price against a 10. In addition, some flush cards like a Q, J, 9 or 8 could possibly improve you to a hand that is still beat by his rivered full house. So, you really only have 5 outs (3 to 7 of diamonds) that I'd consider clean outs and 4 that are potentially tainted. Furthermore, if the flush comes, it is fairly obvious and some (admittedly few) tight players could find a fold with trips.
But, this opponent is not tight, he is a bit LAG and capable of bluffing. My initial reaction is that it's a call. However, it bothers me that this opponent, who you consider a good player, gave you nearly the correct price to call on the turn with a 1/3 pot bet. He then bet a smallish $100, instead of putting you all in for $155 when an ace hit on the river. That ace is likely to hit your range, so why wouldn't he put you all in? The combination of bet sizes on the turn and the river make me think it is more likely that he has a 10 than that he is bluffing. I'm not sure that it is enough that I would fold, but if I had other reasons to discount a bluff in this case, I might be able to find a fold.
This hand confused me. I agree with Dave that my turn call is a little suspect, since I can't assume my aces and lings are outs.
Getting over 3-1 on a call, I called, villain shows 33 for a flopped set that boated up on the turn. This is a leak in my game......when a player does not take an aggressive action preflop and on the flop, then starts leading out and betting.....they usually made a monster on the flop and they are trying to get max value. Best to have folded the turn.